Pogačar To Race Roubaix
TOPSHOT-CYCLING-FRA-TDF2022-STAGE5
TOPSHOT - UAE Team Emirates team's Slovenian rider Tadej Pogacar wearing the best young rider's white jersey cycles across a cobblestone sector during the 5th stage of the 109th edition of the Tour de France cycling race, 153,7 km between Lille and Arenberg Porte du Hainaut, in northern France, on July 6, 2022. (Photo by Marco BERTORELLO / AFP) (Photo by MARCO BERTORELLO/AFP via Getty Images)
Wednesday, 26 March 2025
“Cyclist enters race” isn’t normally news but Tadej Pogačar’s decision to ride Paris-Roubaix this year is of interest on several levels.
The whole thing has felt like a prolonged teaser operation since he first published a video on social media of him riding in the Arenberg forest on 10 February.
Today his team announced it inside a press release about the roster for the E3, what journalists call “burying the lede”. The team’s communications are not their strongest point, their website still has a link at the top to X for the “@TeamUAEAbuDhabi” username they deleted several years ago. But that’s a luxury of long term sponsorship, they don’t have to polish every message.
The message will have reached the other riders on the team. This matters a little because when Pogačar is at a race he’s the team’s obvious leader. So his presence on the startline in Compiègne soon means the likes of Nils Politt, Tim Wellens, Antonio Morgado, Florian Vermeersch are going to have to take one for the team. They could still win but the riding style is not “more the merrier”, it’s typically “all for one” as we saw on the Cipressa.
They’re well paid for this but part of the implicit deal joining UAE has been to for Pogačar at other times and get opportunities for themselves. Now these chances shrink. It won’t lead to mutiny but it might prove frustrating and there could be a long term effect because if Pogačar doesn’t win this year but gets close there’s every chance he’s back again and again.
“The Tour de France is the priority of the season.
His plan is to do the Tour de France and the Vuelta,
that’s already a lot of work”
– Mauro Gianetti, RMC radio (translated)
Staying with the team, management has said out loud they’d prefer it if he did not ride. Speaking to French radio station RMC team boss Mauro Gianetti also said “if he wants to do it… …we’re not going to stop him“. This is also interesting as a team boss is saying out loud he can’t stop his rider. Would another team boss put their foot down? Possibly but equally any team that employed Pogačar would have to find ways to keep him content and motivated. Some of this is apparently mediated via Pogačar’s agent Alex Carrera. Either way it shows a rider with more clout than their team and that’s notable.
Cycling: 114th Paris - Roubaix 2016
Cycling: 114th Paris - Roubaix 2016 CANCELLARA Fabian (SUI)/ TERPSTRA Niki (NED)/ MOSCON Gianni (ITA)/ NAESEN Oliver (BEL)/ Crash Chute Val / Compiegne - Roubaix (257,5Km)/ Parijs PR /(c) Tim De Waele
One reason why UAE management don’t want him to race is the crash and injury risk. The Tour de France is the priority for them many times over. But Paris-Roubaix’s hype can get ahead of the reality, it’s a difficult and sometimes brutal race but it’s not necessarily a crash fest or a scene of butchery. Many riders can’t race for some time after because of sore hands. Season-spoiling injuries can happen but they’re not legion.
Jonas Vingegaard’s Tour preparations were undone by the Itzulia Basque Country last year, before that Pogačar’s Tour was spoiled by a pothole in Liège-Bastogne-Liège. These things can happen anywhere. Perhaps they are more likely on the way to Roubaix. Pogačar skipping two races in the E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in order to add one race to Roubaix probably may even reduce his crash chances but it’s impossible to prove.
L’Equipe’s front page on Sunday morning ran with "Le Dompteur", a noun usually applied to a lion tamer but this time for Mathieu van der Poel who has mastered the way to beat Pogačar. Roubaix could well be a repeat. Pogačar has been able to win Flanders because he’s had his team ride at warp speed into the Oude Kwaremont so that everyone is in the red and then he uses the relatively long climb – two kilometres – to pile on the pressure and crack rivals, van der Poel included. For Roubaix there’s no climb, he has no comparative advantage on van der Poel.
Indeed at 66kg he’s very light for Roubaix, a race has suited heavy riders and one reason for delaying Pogačar’s focus on Paris-Roubaix has been to come back later with some more bulk. Philippe Gilbert has been listed at 69kg, but might have been bigger that spring. Bernard Hinault in 1981 at a reported 65kg is the more obvious exemplar if we start fishing around in history. But so much has changed in terms of bikes that comparisons seem fruitless.
Also Paris-Roubaix is no race for debutants, even if he’s done the junior edition and raced some pavé during the Tour de France. Of all the Monuments this one rewards patience and experience. A novice can still win, see Sonny Colbrelli in 2021 but he’s the exception to the rule, plus he was 31 years old on his first go. Before that we go back to Felice Gimondi in 1966. Only this was in the pre-Arenberg era and even included the Pas Roland climb outside Mons-en-Pévèle. Today bike tech can help here as while technique still counts for plenty, 32mm tires on wide rims insulate more than an extra roll of bartape used to. All told it’ll be hard for him to win… but fun to watch.
Conclusion
What Pogačar wants, he gets. Unless Mathieu van der Poel has a say.
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