PEZ Preview MILANO-SANREMO: Who Will Pounce On The Poggio?
Who will win La Primavera?
By Alastair Hamilton On Mar 15, 2023
Race Preview: Milan–Sanremo, ‘La Primavera’, ‘The Spring classic’ or ‘La Classicissima’, to some it is the queen of the Monuments, it is, for sure, the longest professional one-day and the first major classic race of the season. It is also considered to be one of the most prestigious one-day events in cycling. Here is the history, route and who to look out for on Saturday.
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The Poggio is the star of the day
Milan–San Remo is considered a sprinters classic because of its mainly flat course, but with the Poggio climb close to the finish, we have seen many non-sprinters take the honours in Sanremo. ‘La Primavera’ is fascinating, slow burn of a bike race, some say boring for the first five hours, but there is the romance of an Italian race that you don’t get anywhere else. The race moves from the city to the coast and when the riders get a whiff of the sea air, the race is on.
The sea air gets the race going
No cathedral start in Milano this year
The Race History
The first Milan-Sanremo started at 5 o’clock in the morning of April 14, 1907. Thirty-three riders lined up on this cold morning, instead of the planned sixty for the 288 kilometres to Sanremo. Only fourteen riders finished. Lucien Petit-Breton, the son of a watchmaker, took the win, he also won the Tour de France twice in his time as a pro. Those early years had top winners as the champions put their names on the honours roll. Before the First World War, Luigi Ganna, who later won the first Giro d’Italia, Gustave Garrigou, Henri Pélissier and Odiel Defraeye would also win the Tour de France.
The first winner in 1907 – Lucien Petit-Breton
Milan-Sanremo is called ‘La Primavera’, spring, but has been hit by extreme winter weather. The apocalyptic edition of 1910 turned an already popular race into a legend. Due to a snow storm, only four riders reached the finish in San Remo, the other 59 starters had taken refuge wherever they could find it. Eugène Christophe was the winner of that tough year. A hundred years later, in 2013, the race once again suffered extremely bad weather. Gerard Ciolek was the victor that year.
Gerard Ciolek – 2013 winner
The 104th edition had to be shortened to 246 kilometres eliminating two key climbs, the Passo del Turchino and Le Manie and the riders took a bus transfer to the re-start. A few riders didn’t take the restart, including Tom Boonen, who protested against the decision to let all riders to restart, despite several riders having been dropped before the race was neutralised. Boonen’s team-mate Sylvain Chavanel and Ian Stannard led a reduced peloton over the summit of the final climb, the Poggio di San Remo, a group of six formed on the descent, including pre-race favourites Peter Sagan and 2008 winner Fabian Cancellara. The six stayed together until the finish, where Gerald Ciolek won the sprint ahead of Sagan and Cancellara.
Spring weather on the road to Sanremo
Costante Girardengo was a Milan-San Remo record holder. Between 1917 and 1928, the first Campionissimo won six of the twelve editions and finished second or third five times. Yet Girardengo is not the record holder in terms of the number of victories. Eddy Merckx, of course, surpassed the Italian with seven victories. The first of these was in 1966, the last in 1976.
Four time winner Gino Bartali
Then there was Gino Bartali, he was the winner in 1939, 1940, 1947 and 1950. Four victories, that puts him on the same level as Erik Zabel. Of course he could have won Milan-San Remo for a fifth time in 2004, but made a the classic mistake of raised his arms as Óscar Freire passed under one of them.
A lesson for Erik Zabel from Óscar Freire
Freire won Milan-Sanremo three times 2004, 2007 and 2010, it was no flash in the pan for the Spaniard. Since then there has been winners from Australia (Matthew Goss 2011 & Simon Gerrans 2012), Germany (Gerald Ciolek 2013 & John Degenkolb 2015), Norway (Alexander Kristoff 2014), France (Arnaud Démare 2016 & Julian Alaphilippe 2019), Poland (Michał Kwiatkowski 2017), Italy (Vincenzo Nibali 2018), Belgium (Wout Van Aert 2020 & Jasper Stuyven 2021) and Slovenia (Matej Mohorič 2022).
2022 winner Matej Mohorič with his ‘dropper post’
The Course
Milan-San Remo will not start in Milan this year for the first time in history. The 114th edition of the Classic starts in Abbiategrasso, about 25 kilometres west of the city. Abbiategrasso dates back to Roman times, but the main attraction, the Castello Visconteo, dates back to the Middle Ages.
The start is in Abbiategrasso
From Abbiategrasso the race goes straight to Pavia and the original route after about 30 kilometres. Apart from those first kilometres there is no changes to the route. The riders cross the Passo del Turchino towards Genoa Voltri and from there the route goes westward along the coast. Via Avarice, Savona and Albenga, the Tre Capi are reached: the Capo Mele, the Capo Cervo and the Capo Berta.
Milano-Sanremo 2023 Route
From the top of the Capo Berta, about 40 kilometres from the finish, it will be ‘full gas’ to the last two climbs of the day: the Cipressa, which has been part of the route since 1982, and the Poggio di Sanremo, first introduced in 1961. The Cipressa is just over 5.6 kilometres long with a gradient of 4.1%. There are opportunities here for an attack, but the summit is more than 20 kilometres from the finish.
There could be action on the Cipressa
The very technical descent leads back to the national road SS 1 Aurelia. The climb of the Poggio di Sanremo starts 9 kilometres from the finish. The climb is 3.7 kilometres long and has an average gradient of 3.7%. Just before the summit, the gradient increases to 8%. The road is quite narrow, with four hairpin bends in the first 2 kilometres. The descent, as we all know, is challenging with many bends that are narrow at certain points.
The profile
The last part of the descent goes into the town of Sanremo. The last 2 kilometres are on long, straight roads. At 850 metres from the finish there is a left turn on a roundabout. The last corner onto the finishing straight on the Via Roma is 750 metres from one of the most famous finishes in cycling.
So, Who Will Win?
Milano-Sanremo used to be the Classic for the sprinters, but it has been a long time since there was a bunch gallop on the Via Roma. Recently the wins have come from small groups or solo riders holding off their pursuers. This year the tactics of the non-sprinter teams will be the same: Make the race so hard on the final climbs that the sprinters are dropped.
Top favourite – Tadej Pogačar
UAE Team Emirates will want to make the selection again this year on the Cipressa. It is very probable that Tadej Pogačar will want to be with as small a group as possible when he reaches the Poggio. But is the Poggio hard enough for the Slovenian to make the difference? Pogačar has a sprint that is difficult to beat, although as we saw in Flanders, he can be out manoeuvred. If he wins Milan-San Remo, it will be the first time that a rider has done the Paris-Nice/Sanremo double since Laurent Jalabert in 1995.
Wout van Aert knows how to win in Sanremo
Wout van Aert can’t be far behind Pogačar in the favourites list. The winner of the 2020 Milan-San Remo was relatively quiet in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he had just come from an altitude training camp and had been sick on his first days on Teide. He crashed during Tirreno, but he did finish 10th on the Tappa dei Muri, won by Primož Roglič, after he started the action with 40 kilometres to go. Jumbo-Visma, like UAE Emirates, will also set a high pace to get rid of the sprinters. With their strength-in-depth, Jumbo has more than one man they can send up the road, Tiesj Benoot or Christophe Laporte could play their own cards.
All for Mads Pedersen at Trek-Segafredo
2021 winner, Jasper Stuyven will be at the start again this year, but Trek-Segafredo will probably be working for Mads Pedersen. The Dane has already won twice this season: The final time trial in the Étoile de Bessèges and a sprint stage in Paris-Nice. Last year he made his debut in Milan-Sanremo, he was a the group of eight riders behind winner Mohorič and finished in sixth place. Pedersen now has the Sanremo experience and should be in the final mix.
There is no gravel between Milan and Sanremo, but there is the descent of the Poggio for Tom Pidcock
Tom Pidcock will be going for a top place, but it all depends on his recovery from the crash in Tirreno-Adriatico. The INEOS Grenadiers rider had to abandon in Italy on the final stage. Previously his form was good, he won Strade Bianche with a bold move 50 kilometres from the finish for a solo win. If it comes to laking the lead on the descent of the Poggio and holding it to the line in Sanremo, then Pidcock can do it.
* INEOS Grenadiers has announced that Tom Pidcock is suffering from mild concussion from his crash in the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico last Sunday and will not start Milano-Sanremo on Saturday. *
Is it possible for Mohorič to do it again?
Matej Mohorič made a solo attack on the descent of the Poggio and stayed away to the finish-line in Sanremo. The Bahrain Victorious Slovenian from Bahrain Victorious is in good shape, but everyone will be watching him and his dropper post will not be a surprise this year actions usually owe their success partly to the surprise effect. That will no longer be there. His descending skill is unquestionable, but will he be allowed to show it off.
Can MvdP surprise?
Mathieu van der Poel hasn’t shown great road form so far this season. He did get involved in the sprint lead-outs in Tirreno-Adriatico for Jasper Philipsen, but was only 15th in Strade Bianche. Van der Poel himself said that his legs have been a bit disappointing so far. But let’s not forget his 3rd place in Milan-San Remo last year.
It would be a brilliant result for young Arnaud De Lie
Arnaud De Lie didn’t get the chance to show his sprinting in Paris-Nice last week. He had the form but not the opportunity. If it comes to a sprint in Sanremo and the young Belgian survives the 300 kilometres and the climbs, then he could be the winner. He has shown that he is much more than just a sprinter this season, like in the Ètoil de Bessèges and the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
Caleb Ewan an outside chance
Lotto Dstny also has Caleb Ewan. The Australian has been 2nd twice in Sanremo, in 2018 and 2021 and has shown some early form this year. In last year’s edition he was able to battle with the best on the Poggio. Ewan said last year he was aiming at ‘La Primavera’, but he didn’t ride Paris-Nice or Tirreno-Adriatico. Maybe he has a secret?
Girmay is a class rider and will want a result
After winning in Valencia in February, Biniam Girmay rode well in Tirreno-Adriatico with a 3rd and 4th place, but no win. The Eritrean rider has the capabilities to win the Spring Classic, he was 12th last year and followed that up with his Gent-Wevelgem victory.
Alaphilippe isn’t the rider he was, but you can’t right him off
Julian Alaphilippe won Milan-San Remo in 2019 and has been on the podium three times, 3rd in 2017 and 2nd in 2020 to Wout van Aert. Alaphilippe has had a lot of bad luck with a lot of crashes and rehabilitation, now he looks to be on the mend, but with mixed results. He won the Faun-Ardèche Classic and had a 2nd place on a hilly stage of Tirreno-Adriatico, but was 43rd in Strade Bianche. Sanremo might suit him more.
Will Matthews ever win Milan-Sanremo?
Michael Matthews has been on the podium of Milan-Sanremo several times: 3rd in 2015 and 2020, plus 4th, 6th and 7th. The Australian has a great Sanremo palmarès, but not the elusive victory.
* Matthews tested positive for covid on Monday and may not start. *
Magnus Cort has the form, but…
Magnus Cort can win races, but has never done much in the one-day Classics. His best results in La Primavera were 8th and 11th, but his recent performances in the Volta ao Algarve and Paris-Nice show he has what is needed.
Fourteen years since Mark Cavendish beat
Heinrich Haussler on the line in the 2009 Milan Sanremo
Sanremo can be a lottery and hard to predict and there have been some surprise winners in the past. There are quite a few outside possibles: Alberto Bettiol, Søren Kragh Andersen, Neilson Powless, Filippo Ganna, Peter Sagan, Anthony Turgis (2nd last year). And then the sprinters: Bryan Coquard, Arnaud Démare (Winner in 2016), Jasper Philipsen, Sam Bennett, Iván García, Jonathan Milan and Giacomo Nizzolo. What if there is a bunch sprint? Mark Cavendish could upset everything.
The final start list isn’t know yet, but these are the top men at time of going to press.
The ‘PEZ Pick’ of Top Favourites:
It has to be Tadej Pogačar with Wout Van Aert as ‘likely to be up there’. Outside chance for Mads Pedersen, Mathieu van der Poel and Arnaud De Lie. Then Matej Mohorič, Biniam Girmay and Julian Alaphilippe could surprise.
Alastair Hamilton has been a pro team mechanic on the road, track and mountain bike and worked for the Great Britain team at the World championships in all disciplines. Since moving to Spain and finding out how to use a computer, he has gone from contributor of Daily Distractions at the 2002 Vuelta a España to editor at PezCyclingNews.
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