Freshman sensation Flagg flies above all Duke’s previous NBA prospects

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5 Apr 2025 - The Washington Post

BY BEN GOLLIVER AND ARTUR GALOCHA

When Cooper Flagg committed to Duke in 2023, his family understood that he might become — in the words of his mother, Kelly — the “greatest, hated White Duke villain.”

Now that the 18-year-old Flagg has solidified his standing as the consensus No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft by leading the Blue Devils (35-3) to the Final Four in San Antonio this weekend, he could soon depart the college game with another title: Duke’s best NBA prospect ever.

There’s a lot of competition for that moniker given Duke’s track record of cranking out top talent. A whopping 50 Duke players have been first-round draft picks in the past 40 years. Of those, 24 have been top-10 picks, 15 have been top-three picks, and four — Elton Brand, Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson and Paolo Banchero — have been taken No. 1 overall. 

Flagg’s top rivals among Duke products are household names. Grant Hill won two national championships at Duke, then made seven NBA all-star teams during an 18-year Hall of Fame career. Jayson Tatum is a perennial MVP candidate who helped lead the Boston Celtics to the 2024 NBA title. Williamson captured the country’s attention as a one-and-done freshman by putting together one of the most impressive statistical seasons in NCAA history. Christian Laettner, Brand, Jay Williams, Irving, Jabari Parker and Banchero weren’t exactly slouches, either.

Ahead of the curve

The case for Flagg, who was named national player of the year by the Associated Press on Friday, starts with his remarkable all-around production: No freshman in NCAA history has matched his averages of 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks. What’s more, only a handful of college players of any age have hit all of those benchmarks, including a couple of guys named Larry Bird and Anfernee Hardaway. Flagg’s advanced statistics are similarly impressive: He led the ACC in player efficiency rating, win shares, box plus-minus, points produced and defensive rating.

While Flagg’s statistical portfolio reflects a complete and consistent player who has functioned as an efficient No. 1 option on offense and a game-changing presence on defense, it must also be noted that he first came onto Duke Coach Jon Scheyer’s radar when he was 14 years old, he graduated high school in three years and he just turned 18 in December. By comparison, Tatum was 19 when he was selected with the No. 3 pick in 2017, and Hill was 21 when he was taken third in 1994.

Despite the age gap, Flagg was more productive across the board and a more efficient shooter than Tatum was during his freshman season, and his body of work compares favorably with Hill’s senior season. Cross-generational comparisons between Flagg and Hill are difficult because star players stayed longer in college during the 1990s and the three-point revolution hadn’t yet swept the sport.

Nevertheless, Flagg’s youth feels like a decisive factor: Hill made his NBA debut for the Detroit Pistons at age 22, and Flagg will be the same age when he completes his four-year rookie contract in 2029. Hill was more famous and Nba-ready when he left Duke than Flagg is, but Flagg has plenty of developmental time to overtake Hill and potentially become the first Blue Devil to win an NBA MVP award.

Flagg’s polish is one of his chief virtues as a prospect, and it led Tatum to tell the Boston Globe last year that Flagg is “probably ahead of me” at the same age and that he “wasn’t nearly as athletic” as Flagg when he enrolled at Duke. Flagg only reinforced that perception with an impressive showing in a scrimmage last July against the U.S. Olympic men’s basketball team, which was assembled by Hill and included Tatum.

“Cooper has been fantastic,” Hill said in a recent interview with Whistle Sports. “He made me look good by bringing him [into the scrimmage] because he had a really good day as one of the better players on the court. I love his game, I love the kid, and I think the future is bright, but we still have unfinished business this year at Duke.”

High floor, high ceiling

Flagg has long been viewed by NBA talent evaluators as a safe pick thanks to his strong basketball intelligence, excellent motor, unselfish approach on offense and defensive versatility. Players with that combination of attributes are often said to have a high floor.

At Duke, Flagg has made a strong case that his NBA career will have a high ceiling, too, by answering questions about his shot creation, outside shooting ability and playmaking. There was some thought Flagg might be better suited to a secondary scoring role in the NBA, but he has posted a 30.7 usage rate as a freshman — topping Tatum, Williamson and Banchero, who all blossomed into No. 1 options and all-stars in the NBA. Flagg has also been a more reliable threepoint shooter as a freshman than Tatum, Williamson, Banchero and R. J. Barrett.

While Williamson and Barrett were higher-volume scorers than Flagg when they headlined Duke’s 2018-19 team, Flagg has dominated games without monopolizing the ball. A talented scorer who attacks the rim, pulls up from midrange and launches from deep, Flagg gained extensive experience handling double teams and making reads during his two seasons at Montverde Academy in Florida.

Scheyer wasted no time giving Flagg the keys to his offense, even though that decision contributed to a couple of early-season losses. However, the 6-foot-9 Flagg didn’t need long to adjust to the size and speed of college defenses, crafting a devastating partnership with center Khaman Maluach, who excels at finishing lobs, and creating open looks for Duke’s outside shooters.

Flagg’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 2-to-1 tops those of Hill, Tatum, Williamson, Banchero, Barrett and Parker during their respective collegiate careers. Though he might lack the vision and audacity necessary to be an elite playmaker in the NBA, Flagg will enter the NBA as a trustworthy decision-maker who can be expected to further refine his distribution skills, just as Tatum has throughout his Boston tenure.

On trend

A strong and athletic forward who scores, passes, handles the ball, defends multiple positions and plays hard is a highly coveted positional archetype in the NBA. Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tatum are among the players in that mold who have led championship teams in the past decade.

Flagg’s case as Duke’s greatest prospect ever, then, benefits from the fact that he is perfectly on trend for the modern game. While Laettner is an all-time Blue Devils legend and Brand was a sturdy big man who averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds as a rookie, their respective offensive roles in the NBA were dependent upon their teammates in a way that shouldn’t be the case for Flagg.

Smaller guards such as Williams, whose career was cut short by a motorcycle accident, or Irving, who became a champion and future Hall of Famer after an injury-plagued season at Duke, just haven’t proved to drive winning like bigger wings. The most obvious exception to that rule is Stephen Curry, who famously attended Davidson after being passed over by Duke during the recruiting process.

Winning impact

Duke advanced to the Final Four with serious momentum, riding a 15 game-winning streak and winning 31 of its past 32 games. Even though the Blue Devils rely heavily on a trio of freshmen — Flagg, Maluach and Kon Knueppel — this year’s group has assembled a résumé that stacks up against those of the best teams in program history. Duke has won its four NCAA tournament games by an average of 23.5 points, including a 20-point blowout of Alabama in the East Region final last weekend.

Entering Saturday’s national semifinal against Houston, Duke boasts a .921 winning percentage that ranks fourth in program history and a preposterous plus21.1 point differential that ranks third. The only previous Duke teams that were more dominant than this year’s version were 1998-99 (plus-24.6) and 1997-98 (plus-21.5), groups that featured future NBA players such as Brand, Trajan Langdon and Shane Battier.

Flagg’s fingerprints are all over Duke’s lopsided successes: He is a disciplined on-ball defender, an excellent help-side shot-blocker, an active rebounder and a constant threat in transition. His consistent energy helps set the tone for an elite defense, and his feel for scoring without marginalizing his teammates has fueled Duke’s juggernaut offense.

“[Flagg] closes that window quick when somebody does have a [scoring] opportunity,” Scheyer said last week. “It’s led us to really protect our rim well but also created some turnovers and steals that lead to easy opportunities. We have a bunch of guys that are versatile, nobody more than him. The thing he’s done great this year is guard the ball. He’s a guy that can guard [all five positions], and his defensive instincts off the ball have been a huge part of what we’ve done.”

If Duke can beat Houston, it would face either Auburn or Florida for the national championship Monday. The Blue Devils are seeking their first title since 2015, a triumph that would elevate Flagg alongside Hill, Laettner and Williams among Duke’s champions.

“These are the moments that you think about growing up,” Flagg said last week. “Being in these big-time games, big-time moments together is just a surreal feeling. I wouldn’t want to be here with anyone else.”

Surpassing Williamson

There is one Duke player who can claim to have gaudier freshman numbers and to have generated more predraft hype than Flagg: Williamson. The 2019 Naismith player of the year’s college numbers were simply incredible: He averaged 22.6 points on 68 percent shooting; averaged more rebounds, steals and blocks than Flagg; and posted a 40.8 player efficiency rating that is the highest in Duke’s history and the second highest of any player in the past 20 years. When the New Orleans Pelicans won the right to draft Williamson with the No. 1 pick, Coach Alvin Gentry jumped out of his seat and yelled, “F--- yeah!”

The excitement around the broad-shouldered Williamson centered on his unbelievable athleticism and two-way versatility. Williamson would casually throw down 360-degree dunks during layup lines, race across the court to block three-point shots with his fingertips and bully through traffic to score around the rim. The 6-7 forward was so forceful that he blew out one of his Nike sneakers during a rivalry game against North Carolina.

But Williamson’s high ceiling came with some obvious risks: He was built more like a football player than a basketball player, he wasn’t an especially adept three-point shooter, and he was more naturally inclined to be a scorer rather than a playmaker for his teammates. Analysts worried about injury risk because of Williamson’s stocky frame, and it wasn’t clear whether his best NBA position would be as a bruising power forward, an undersized center or possibly a point forward.

As it turned out, the 24-yearold Williamson has largely been a disappointment because of weight issues and persistent injuries. Although he has earned two all-star nods, Williamson has averaged just 36 games during his six-year NBA career and has yet to appear in the playoffs. He has continued to be a devastating scoring force and has improved as a distributor, but he never developed as an outside shooter and has never led a top-10 offense.

His impressive defensive impact at Duke hasn’t translated to the NBA, because injury issues have limited his lateral quickness and mobility on that end.

Flagg now appears to be the superior prospect because he possesses about the same upside as Williamson in 2019 without any of the most concerning red flags: He is a fluid athlete who has played heavy minutes and enjoyed good health in recent years, he projects as a cleaner fit in the NBA’S spacing-oriented environment, and he is an old soul obsessed with self-improvement who has been on the fast track to the NBA since his freshman year in high school.

There are no guarantees when it comes to basketball development: Hill, Williams, Parker and Williamson were all excellent prospects from Duke whose NBA careers didn’t turn out as expected. Even so, Flagg will enter the NBA with more promise than any of them.