A Cut Above

In a season with no truly dominant team, five have shown the ability to bounce back from injuries and bad losses, emerging as the clear favorites to reach Minneapolis. Which one will wield the ceremonial scissors on April 8?

BY DAN GREENE
Sports Illustrated, March 25 - April 1, 2019

EVERYONE enters the Madness with scars. After Michigan fell to Wisconsin on Jan. 19, each of the 353 Division I men’s basketball teams had at least one loss; entering the NCAA tournament, all have been beaten at least three times. Even the best programs endured notable struggles. 

Duke treaded water during the six-game absence of the nation’s most brilliant star due to the freak explosion of his sneaker. 

Gonzaga reached No. 1 in the polls two separate times, only to lose twice in a row the first time and suffer a shocking West Coast Conference championship defeat the second. Kentucky began its season by getting the blue blood beaten out of it (118–84 to Duke). 

In November, North Carolina’s performance had its Hall of Fame coach sounding like a despondent talk-radio caller. 

Virginia conquered everybody but Duke until being upset in the ACC semifinals, conjuring up the Cavaliers’ ghosts of Big Dances past. 

Yet in the NCAAs, the past is not prologue. It’s not about who has lost when. It’s about who will not lose again. In a season in which the top teams have separated themselves, five have emerged as especially well-positioned to survive the win-or-go-home gantlet. The candidates who just missed this list certainly have strengths. 

Michigan State might have its best team in years; last spring’s runner-up, Michigan, is capable of another Final Four run;

Tennessee, after beating Kentucky twice in two weeks, can realistically knock off anybody. 

But on April 8, when the final horn sounds at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, one member of this quintet is likeliest to be basking in its shining moment, all the hardships drowned in a rain of confetti.

The Favorite - DUKE

Any fears that freshman forward Zion Williamson might not return to his gravitydefying self after a three-week layoff due to a right-knee sprain were put to rest 130 seconds into the ACC tournament quarterfinal against Syracuse. On the Orange’s third possession Williamson came up with a steal on the perimeter, accelerated past his flatfooted opponents and launched himself at the rim from 10 feet out. In the wake of the ensuing emphatic dunk, the Blue Devils were back as national title favorites. As flashy as the flush was, the play began with an illustration of one of Williamson’s less-celebrated strengths: his defense. Nimble, intelligent and imposing, the 6'7", 285-pound Williamson is a disrupter par excellence: He’s the only player to have ranked among the ACC’s top 10 in both block rate (5.9%, 10th) and steal rate (4.1%, first) this season. Many of those turnovers were tandem efforts with freshman point guard Tre Jones, an outstanding on-ball defender whose pressure forces teams to begin their offense uncomfortably far from the basket, leaving flummoxed ballhandlers vulnerable for pickpocketing by Williamson, who is a key reason that Duke is nearly unstoppable in the resulting fast break. Having such talented individual defenders has allowed the Blue Devils, who rank sixth in adjusted efficiency on D (per Kenpom.com), to clamp down the old-fashioned way. After coach Mike Krzyzewski began using a 2–3 zone a few years ago to make things easier with freshman-heavy lineups—peaking with Duke’s going zone full-time down the stretch last season—he has returned to his traditional man-to-man, using it on 95.3% of half-court possessions, according to Synergy Sports. The country’s top player is back at full strength and Coach K’s defense is in rare form, which is bad news for the rest of the field.

TELLING NUMBERS 

• 3–3 The Blue Devils’ record in games Zion Williamson missed due to injury. They are 26–2 with him. 
• 779 Points for RJ Barrett, breaking Kenny Anderson’sACC freshman record from 1989–90. 
• 30.2 Three-point shooting percentage for Duke, which ranks 339th in Division I.

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The Complete Package - UNC

Stink was the word North Carolina coach Roy Williams used to describe his team after a 17-point loss at Michigan on Nov. 28 — as in, “We stink” — and he didn’t stop there: “Right now my coaching sucks. If you want some positive things, you better go out and find somebody on the street, because I’ve got no positives for me, no positives for my team.” Three months later, after a 16–2 run through the ACC and Williams’s ninth regular-season title in that conference, it’s harder to say what positives the Tar Heels don’t have. Experience? Not only is 6'8" senior and 2017 NCAA tournament hero Luke Maye (32, below) still in Carolina blue, but the team’s leading scorer, 6'9" forward Cameron Johnson (16.9 points), is a graduate student in his fifth year of eligibility. Quality point guard play? Freshman Coby White has taken quickly to the role, ranking second on the team in scoring (16.3) and sixth in the ACC in assist rate (25.5%). Shooting? Johnson makes 46.5% of his threes, White 36.0%. How about size? At 6' 6.5", North Carolina is 18th nationally and fourth among NCAA tournament teams in average height. Rebounding? The Tar Heels are top 20 in the nation on both ends. Depth? Their top reserve, 6' 6" freshman wing Nassir Little, is projected to be a lottery pick this June. And yet this blue blood with so much going for it has been relatively overlooked. Perhaps that was because the high-wattage freshman from up Tobacco Road sucked up so much oxygen, or because the team that tied for the ACC’s regular-season title, Virginia, began and then spent the season a few spots ahead in the polls. One player who might help North Carolina cross the finish line is largely unheralded himself: Kenny Williams, a 6' 4" senior guard who is a streaky but capable outside shooter and the team’s best, most nettlesome perimeter defender. In the regular-season finale, a 79–70 win over Duke, Williams drew four offensive fouls, including three on the Blue Devils’ top scorer, RJ Barrett. That’s a knack for disruption that can quickly turn an opposing star’s aggression from a positive to a negative.

TELLING NUMBERS 

• 60 ACC wins for Luke Maye (52 regularseason, eight tournament), a school record. 
• 43.5 Rebounds per game, mostin D-I. The Heels also rank fifth in adjusted tempo. 
• 61.4 Percentage of UNC’s field goals that were assisted, eighth highest in the nation.

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The Growth Spurt - KENTUCKY

ne of the most encouraging signs of the Wildcats’ development this season was soundtracked by . . . Florida students? On Feb. 2. in Gainesville, with Kentucky down 11 in the second half, sophomore forward PJ Washington gathered his teammates together during a dead ball and implored them to stop playing selfishly. The Gators’ student section, seizing on his obvious frustration, began chanting, “PJ’s angry!” The Wildcats wound up winning 65–54, offering more tangible evidence of what Washington’s pep talk suggested: that Kentucky was growing up. On the youngest team in the NCAA tournament field (yes, less experienced than even Duke), whose lone scholarship upperclassman, grad transfer Reid Travis, missed five games with a right-knee sprain, the 6' 8" Washington (left) has been the closest thing to a veteran presence. But he’s not the only one to pipe up. In a Jan. 19 win at Auburn, freshman guard Ashton Hagans—a fiery defender whose December insertion into the starting lineup helped transform the Wildcats’ SEC-best D— famously called on classmate Keldon Johnson to “wake the f- up,” sparking Johnson’s 20-point effort. Such are the mileposts of the “player-driven teams” that coach John Calipari strives for annually. Washington’s development on the court has been crucial too. Since conference play began he has ascended from one of many options to primary threat, averaging 16.1 points and 6.6 boards against SEC opponents to enter the league’s player of the year discussion. (He lost out to Tennessee’s Grant Williams.) Calipari, who cites improved conditioning for Washington’s breakout, has gained a flexible weapon who can knock down threes (41.9% from behind the arc) while establishing himself as the Wildcats’ go-to post option (using 43.5% of the team’s post-up possessions). That inside scoring draws attention from the Cats’ two best shooters, the 6' 6" Johnson (38.8% from three) and 6' 5" freshman Tyler Herro (37.3%), as well as creating room for the bruising 6' 8", 238-pound Travis, who returned for the SEC tournament. Any of those three could serve as Kentucky’s top scorer on a given night, but it’s Washington who will most likely be the leading man on any deep run in March. As Calipari told reporters at the end of January, “I’ve waited a year and a half for [Washington] to play this way.” Not angry, but better.

TELLING NUMBERS 

• 8 Games (of 16 since Jan. 14) in which PJ Washington has scored more than 20 points. 
• 94.0 Free throw percentage for Tyler Herro (79 of 84),the highestin the nation. 
• 23.6 Percentage of Kentucky’s points that come from threes, which ranks 341stin D-I.

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The Outlier - GONZAGA

When the Naismith Hall of Fame released the lists of 10 finalists for each of its five annual position awards in February, most newsworthy was the omission of the best player on the country’s top team. Brandon Clarke has defied categorization before. When he was a wiry, 6' 6" nonshooter from Vancouver playing at Desert Vista High in Phoenix, recruiters wondered what role he would fill at the next level. Now two inches taller and more physically developed, the 215-pound Clarke excels as a nebulous, modern four/five, and despite attempting just 14 threes, he has developed a capable jumper. Consider: According to Sports-reference.com, Clarke’s 140.1 regular-season offensive rating ranked first nationally, while his 83.9 defensive rating ranked third; his box plus/minus (18.6) and win shares per 40 minutes (.340) trailed only those of Duke’s Zion Williamson. A transfer from San Jose State who sat out last season, Clarke can kiss the rim, and he puts those hops to maximum use. Per Synergy Sports, he ranks in the 97th percentile in scoring efficiency on putbacks (a boon to his second-ranked effective field goal percentage), while ranking 17th in block rate (11.0%) on Kenpom.com. He has also shown a knack for erasing lapses elsewhere from the Bulldogs’ D, as about half of Clarke’s blocks have come as a help defender. That rim protection, as well as Clarke’s versatility, could be especially pivotal for the title aspirations of a team that is stronger on offense (No. 1 nationally in adjusted efficiency) than defense (No. 16, with notable struggles against top-level opponents). Of course, Clarke is not the only 6' 8", foreign-born, likely first-round pick in the Zags’ lineup: Fellow junior Rui Hachimura (21, right) of Japan averages 20.1 points and 6.6 rebounds and is on the short list for just about every award. That gives the Bulldogs the kind of versatile, athletic front line that can confound any opponent— Gonzaga remains the lone team to have beaten Duke at full strength, 89–87 on Nov. 21—especially now that 6' 10" junior supersub Killian Tillie returned last week after missing seven games due to a torn ligament in his right foot. Complementing those forwards are a trio of capable shooters, including 6' 3" senior Josh Perkins, the lone remaining starter from the 2017 national runner-up. With a two-way force like Clarke peaking at the right time, this could be the Gonzaga team that earns the kind of prize that’s undeniable.

TELLING NUMBERS

• 60.9 Field goal percentage for Rui Hachimura, 20th in D-I; he has hit 46.9% from three. 
• 21 Consecutive tournament appearances for the Zags, the fifth-longest streak in history.
• 82.4 Winning percentage for Mark Few, best among active coaches and third all-time.

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The Question Mark - VIRGINIA

Associate head coach Jason Williford recently shared with some of the Cavaliers an assessment that would surprise most outsiders: This is the loosest he’s seen a team play at this time of year. That statement, from a coach who has been in Charlottesville for 10 seasons, is unexpected for two reasons. The first is that this time of year, heightened in import for every team, would seem especially fraught for the Cavaliers, who last March followed frequent postseason underachievements by becoming the first No. 1 seed in 135 games to lose its NCAA opener. Yet, says 6'5" junior guard Ty Jerome, “we’ve talked about it so much, and we’ve learned from it. There’s nothing to hide from.” The other? Under coach Tony Bennett, the Cavs have become known for their discipline on both ends of the floor, but this season their methodical attack “feels more fluid,” says Jerome, who averages 13.0 points and 5.4 assists. “This is the most freedom we’ve had in our offense since I’ve been here.” Bennett has given players freer rein in shot selection, as well as installing more ball screens and quick hitters to get scorers into space. The result: an offense ranked second nationally in adjusted efficiency according to Kenpom.com, finally putting it on par with Virginia’s perennially vaunted defense (No. 5). The Cavaliers protect their possessions (the country’s 11th-lowest offensive turnover rate), are deadly from three (40.9% as a team, fourth best) and start three players— Jerome, 6' 2" junior guard Kyle Guy, and 6' 7" sophomore wing De’Andre Hunter—whose offensive efficiency ratings are in the ACC’s top 13. The development of Hunter — who missed last year’s loss to 16th seed UMBC with a broken left wrist — from sixth man to All-America candidate has been a primary catalyst for Virginia’s offensive upswing. The 225-pound projected lottery pick is making 45.7% of his threes, and his playmaking has inspired Bennett to draw up a number of isolation plays. “He has that killer mentality this year,” Jerome says of his team’s leading scorer (15.6 points per game). “That mind-set really changed for him, and that helped all of us.” It’s helped the Hoos be ready and loose for March, just in time for a run that this time might go the distance.

TELLING NUMBERS 

• 53 Virginia’s rank, out of 353 D-I teams, in adjusted tempo, according to Kenpom.com. 
• 44.1 Career threepoint percentage for KyleGuy, a school record and best in the ACC. 
• 5 Continents represented on UVa’s roster. (Only Asia and Antarctica are missing.)