LOMBARDIA’24 PEZ Preview: Can Pogačar be Beaten and By Who?
History, route and favourites
By Alastair Hamilton On Oct 10, 2024
Il Lombardia Race Preview: The days are shorter, the leaves are falling and 2024 cycling season is almost over. But there is one ‘big bash’ left – Il Lombardia. The fifth and final Monument Classic of the season, a race with a long history and many epic editions. The ‘Race of the Falling (Dead) Leaves’ has been won by Tadej Pogačar for the past three years. The Slovenian will be looking for fourth consecutive victory on Saturday, in his phenomenal season, but don’t write off the competition, it could be a fierce battle.
*** You can see the ‘PEZ Lombardia’24 Preview with Chris Horner video’ HERE. ***
Will it be four in a row for Tadej Pogačar?
Il Lombardia History
Il Lombardia is the last Monument of the season, so maybe all the big stars are not on the start-line, but the north Italian Classic is one race that everyone wants to win. The Classica delle foglie morte (“the Classic of the falling (dead) leaves”) has a lot of romance as it closes cycling year. Here is a bit of history.
Giovanni Gerbi – The first winner of Il Lombardia in 1905
The ‘real Lombardia’ was born in 1905. In the early years the race was still known as ‘Milan-Milan’, but from 1907 onwards, it was referred to as the Giro di Lombardia, or Il Lombardia. Of the five Monuments, only Liège-Bastogne-Liège (1892) and Paris-Roubaix (1896) are older, but the race predates Milano-Sanremo (1907) and the Ronde van Vlaanderen (1913).
Of all the five Monuments, Il Lombardia must have the best atmosphere. A lot of this is due to the time of year, the late summer period, and that the season is approaching its end and it is time think back with nostalgia on everything that happened during the past cycling year. In Italy the race is also called ‘La corsa delle foglie morte’, or ‘the race of the dead leaves’, in the rest of the world it has been translated to ‘the race of the falling leaves’. The Tour of Lombardy is the last Monument of the road season, a last chance saloon for any under-achieving team leader.
Lombardia used to be the first big race to see the rainbow jersey. A ‘no-body’ (almost) never wins Lombardia. The stars of the past are all names you should have heard of: Gustave Garrigou (1907), François Faber (1908), Henri Pélissier (1911, 1913 and 1920) and Philippe Thys (1917) in the years before and during the first world war. Then after the first war and then during and after the second world war, it was the Italian champions Costante Girardengo (1919, 1921 and 1922), Alfredo Binda (1925, 1926, 1927 and 1931), Gino Bartali (1936, 1939 and 1940) and record holder Fausto Coppi (1946, 1947, 1948, 1949 and 1954) who ruled the roads of Lombardy.
The legend and five-time Lombardia winner – Fausto Coppi
Then there was other cycling greats: Rik Van Looy (1959), Felice Gimondi (1966 and 1973), Roger De Vlaeminck (1974 and 1976), Francesco Moser (1975 and 1978), Bernard Hinault (1979 and 1984), Sean Kelly (1983, 1985 and 1991) and Tony Rominger (1989 and 1992). In the two-thousands, it was Michele Bartoli (2002 and 2003), Paolo Bettini (2005 and 2006), Damiano Cunego (2004, 2007 and 2008), Philippe Gilbert (2009 and 2010), Joaquim Rodríguez (2012 and 2013) and Vincenzo Nibali (2015 and 2017), who all took several victories.
Italy has had 69 winners, no other country even comes close. Belgium is second in success list with France, with twelve wins. Thys, Van Looy, Emile Daems, Herman Vanspringel, Jean-Pierre Monseré, Merckx, De Vlaeminck, Fons De Wolf and Gilbert were the Belgians and Gustave Garrigou, Henri Pélissier, Louison Bobet, André Darrigade, Bernard Hinault, Charly Mottet, Gilles Delion, Laurent Jalabert and Thibaut Pinot. Roger De Vlaeminck won the Tour of Lombardy twice, at a time when Eddy Merckx was winning when and where he wanted.
There were many other great champions at that same time: Joop Zoetemelk, Luis Ocaña, Felice Gimondi, Bernard Thévenet, Francesco Moser and Jan Raas, but ‘The Gypsy of Eeklo’ had a full palmarès. Milan-Sanremo three times, Paris-Roubaix four times, the Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Tirreno-Adriatico seven times and 22 stages in the Giro d’Italia… the list goes on.
Lombardia 1974 – Roger De Vlaeminck getting the better of Eddy Merckx
De Vlaeminck’s other nickname is Mr. Paris-Roubaix, and he holds the record with four victories (with Tom Boonen, but he doesn’t like to mention it), but the Tour of Lombardy, which he won in 1974 and 1976, also has a special place in his heart. “That is the most beautiful and toughest race in the world. But man, the Tour of Lombardy… That is the real race,” the Belgian said in an interview with De Standaard in 2017. “In my time, one-day cyclists had to compete against climbers. I have ridden there against Thevenet, Poulidor, Zoetemelk, Panizza… But also against top riders from the classics. If you could say in Italy that you have Milan-San Remo and Lombardy on your list of achievements, you are in the gallery of the very best. It is not without reason that Lombardy is in the group of five monuments. You can’t do anything in Lombardy if you don’t like climbing. But if you can and want to do that, Lombardy is really the best,” the two-time winner said of Il Lombardia.
Vincenzo Nibali – Winner in 2017
The Last 10 Winners of Il Lombardia:
2023: Tadej Pogačar
2022: Tadej Pogačar
2021: Tadej Pogačar
2020: Jakob Fuglsang
2019: Bauke Mollema
2018: Thibaut Pinot
2017: Vincenzo Nibali
2016: Jhoan Esteban Chaves Rubio
2015: Vincenzo Nibali
2014: Daniel Martin.
Three time Lombardia winner – Gino Bartali
The 2023 Il Lombardia
Tadej Pogačar dropped the top men in the leading group to solo to victory in Bergamo. His third in a row Il Lombardia and his fifth monument. The other stars couldn’t pull the Slovenian champion back even when he had cramp in the last kilometres. Andrea Bagioli was second and Primož Roglič third at 51 seconds.
# You can read the full ‘PEZ Il Lombardia 2023 Race Report’ HERE. #
2023 Il Lombardia Result:
1. Tadej Pogačar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates in 5:55:33
2. Andrea Bagioli (Ita) Soudal Quick-Step at 0:51
3. Primož Roglič (Slo) Jumbo-Visma
4. Aleksandr Vlasov (-) BORA-hansgrohe
5. Simon Yates (GB) Jayco AlUla
6. Adam Yates (GB) UAE Team Emirates
7. Carlos Rodríguez (Spa) INEOS Grenadiers
8. Richard Carapaz (Ecu) EF Education-EasyPost in 1:05
9. Remco Evenepoel (Bel) Soudal Quick-Step in 1:25
10. Andreas Kron (Den) Lotto Dstny.
The 2024 Route
In recent years, Il Lombardia has alternated between Como and Bergamo for the finish. This year, the finish is again in Como and Bergamo will host the start. Bergamo is one of the oldest cities in Lombardy and has Etruscan, Celtic and Roman influences.
Il Lombardia’24 map
Bergamo is a real cycling city and the Giro d’Italia has visited many times. It is also the birthplace of a number of famous Italian cyclists, including Claudio Corti, Eddy Mazzoleni, Fausto Masnada and Lorenzo Rota, the last two are still in the peloton at the moment. Masnada came close to winning the Tour of Lombardy three years ago, but was beaten in the sprint by Tadej Pogačar.
From Bergamo, the riders head east and then northwest. The race then hits the Forcellino di Bianzano (6.3km at 5.1%), the Ganda (9.4km at 7%), Colle di Berbenno (4.5km at 6.2%) and the climb to Valpiana (10.4km at 6.1%). These climbs should see off the riders who left their climbing legs at home, but the race will probably not start yet.
Il Lombardia’24 profileThe finale starts about 90 kilometres from the finish, with the Madonna del Ghisallo (8.7km at 5.3%). This year it is not climbed from Bellagio, the classic side, but from Asso. In 2022, the race then went straight to the San Fermo della Battaglia, but this year there is the Colma di Sormano (12.8km at 6.7%) first. This is the side that the riders usually descend after climbing the shorter, but very steep Muro di Sormano. This climb was last included in the route in 2020, where Remco Evenepoel crashed over a bridge and broke his pelvis and had months off the bike to recover.
Il Lombardia’24 finale profile
The summit of the Colma di Sormano is 42 kilometres from the finish. Most of the climbing is over as the Civiglio is not on the route this year due to roadworks. After the Sormano there is flat section before San Fermo della Battaglia (2.9km at 6.6%). Once over that climb, there is just over 5 kilometres to the finish line in Como.
The Lombardia Climbs:
- Forcellino di Bianzano (6.3km at 5.1%) – Summit after 29.9 kilometres
- Passo Ganda (9.4km at 7%) – Summit after 49.8 kilometres
- Colle di Berbenno (4.5km at 6.2%) – Summit after 83.9 kilometres
- Valpiana (10.4km at 6.1%) – Summit after 103.8 kilometres
- Madonna del Ghisallo (8.7km at 5.3%) – Summit after 173.7 kilometres
- Colma di Sormano (12.8km at 6.7%) – Summit after 210 kilometres
- San Fermo della Battaglia (2.9km at 6.6%) – Summit after 246.8 kilometres
The Sormano comes 42km for the finish
Saturday October 12, Bergamo – Como (252km)
Start: 10.35am
Finish: around 5pm.
*** Il Lombardia 2024: Route Change ***
Due to heavy rains in recent days, which have caused landslides and flooding, the route and the finish in Como have undergone the following changes.
At km 37.5 the race, having passed the town of Cene, will turn towards Albino, and not Gazzaniga as per the original route, to tackle the Selvino climb from Nembro, which will replace the Passo di Ganda. The originally planned route will be resumed at km 57, after the climb of Selvino.
Due to the risk of flooding of Lake Como, the final part of the race will also be modified. The finish line will not be located on Lungo Lario Trento, but in Viale Felice Cavallotti, where the race will turn inside the last km.
The total distance of Il Lombardia presented by Crédit Agricole will be 255km.
The starting times remain unchanged, with the start meeting point and signature check from 9.00 to 10.30, lining up and city parade at 10.35, and the race start at 10.40.
2024 Il Lombardia new route
When will Pogačar attack this year?
The Race Favourites
Il Lombardia is the race where the top riders of the season battle for the last time… if they are still fresh enough. This year the start list of a high quality, but will the Tadej Pogačar that we have seen recently attack early and finish solo in Como on Saturday? The World champion has had an unbelievable season and is holding his strong form. The leader of UAE Team Emirates started with a win in Strade Bianche and followed that with four stage wins and the overall in the Tour of Catalonia. Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Giro d’Italia, including 6 stage wins, Tour de France, also with 6 stage wins, GP de Montréal, the World road championship and the Giro dell’Emilia last week. That’s 24 victories. Most teams dream of that amount of wins. Pogacar will want No.25 on Saturday and his fourth Lombardia in a row and especially in the rainbow jersey.
Since the year 2000, only Paolo Bettini has won Lombardia as World champion, that was in 2006. Pogačar has a strong team behind him: Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov and Marc Hirschi will be there to help him when the action gets going, but Yates and Hirschi could win if something goes wrong for the Slovenian. Adam Yates has finished in the top-10 in his last three participations and third in 2021. Hirschi has never shown much in Lombardy, but he is moving team at the end of the year and has been winning one race after another recently.
Will this be the peloton’s view of Pogačar on Saturday?
So can anyone beat Tadej Pogacar? His countryman, Primoz Roglič had aimed at the last big race of the season, but since he won the Vuelta a España he has not been riding well and didn’t finish the Giro dell’Emilia and Coppa Bernocchi last week. This was a sign to his present form and Roglič with his Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe team have decided to end his season early and not start Il Lombardia. “A long season is coming to an end. Primož and the performance team have decided to draw a line under an exciting cycling year.” The team will now depend on Aleksandr Vlasov. He was 4th in Lombardy last year and is always a strong contender.
Aleksandr Vlasov should be Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe’s main man
Remco Evenepoel has also had an stunning season: Two Olympic golds, a World championship and on the Tour podium place in the Tour de France, but he is starting to look tired and Saturday might just be a couple of weeks too late. The Belgian wants to get revenge on Lombardia for his crash four years ago that took him out of the race and the peloton for months. The only problem for the Belgian ‘Wonder Boy’ is his form. Evenepoel said before the start of the Coppa Bernocchi that ‘the batteries are slowly starting to run out’ and his team manager Klaas Lodewyck didn’t make any excuses: “He is far from top. We can see that too. He is at his limit. Not when he is just cycling, at a steady pace. Well, in full effort. It is now important to recover well and see what can come of it in the coming days,” Lodewyck told Het Laatste Nieuws.
Has the season been too long for Remco Evenepoel?
What of the other rider who might stand a chance? Tom Pidcock wanted to keep his Olympic mountain bike title, which he succeeded in doing and he was the best behind Pogačar in the Giro dell’Emilia. The INEOS Grenadiers rider should have confidence for Saturday, but he is up against the Slovenian World champion and will have to use his tactics if he wants to win.
Tom Pidcock might have to attack early
Groupama-FDJ’s David Gaudu came out of disappointing Tour de France with some good form, although it he has gone off the boil in the last weeks. Gaudu could throw himself into the race and make a strong effort for the last time in 2024. The team also has young rider, Romain Grégoire. It’s a long and tough race, maybe too much for the Frenchman, but don’t ignore him.
David Gaudu – Maybe?
Apart from Remco Evenepoel, Belgium also has Lennert Van Eetvelt. The young Lotto Dstny climber hasn’t raced since he abandoned the Vuelta a España, so he is an unknown entity on Saturday. Van Eetvelt has been training for Lombardia and will be fresher than the others. Could this be to his advantage?
Lennert Van Eetvelt is another possible
Enric Mas usually has a good end of season after his predictable Vuelta. The Movistar rider was second to Pogačar two years ago and only lost out at the finish to a better sprinter. The Spaniard surprisingly attacked in the eventually cancelled Tre Valli Varesine during the week, so he has the form and the ‘fire in the belly’. But there is always a question, is Mas a winner? He obviously can be a challenger to the World champion, but can he take the victory?
Can Enric Mas step up to the win
Another rider who is always a contender is Michael Woods. The Canadian has been 5th and 9th in the final Monument and was 4th in the Giro dell’Emilia last Saturday. Wilco Kelderman is part of a strong Visma | Lease a Bike team along with Matteo Jorgenson, Attila Valter, Tiesj Benoot and Bart Lemmen.
Michael Woods another man to watch
Of the other outsiders there is also Bauke Mollema, who won Il Lombardia 5 years ago. The Lidl-Trek Dutchman was very strongly at the World championship in Zurich. His teammate Toms Skujiņš was 4th in the World Championship and was very close to a medal.
Bauke Mollema – He’s won here before
Ion Izagirre (Cofidis), Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), Maxim Van Gils (Lotto Dstny), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Michael Storer (Tudor) and Giro dell’Emilia revelation Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa), are all strong candidates for a top finish.
Aurélien Paret-Peintre – Outside bet
Who else to look at? Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Antonio Tiberi and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R) and the retiring Domenico Pozzovivo (VF Group-Bardiani CSF-Faizanè).
The last big race for Domenico Pozzovivo
The TOP Favourites:
No.1: Tadej Pogačar
Possible: Tom Pidcock and Remco Evenepoel
Maybe: Aleksandr Vlasov, Enric Mas and Michael Woods
Outside Chance: Matteo Jorgenson, Toms Skujiņš and Simon Yates.
* The start list might change between now and Saturday.
Il Lombardia 2024 | We are almost here
*** Stay PEZ for the ‘Lombardia Race Report’ on Saturday and all the news in EUROTRASH Monday. ***
# Thanks to WielerFlits and CyclingFlash for inspiration and facts. #
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Alastair Hamilton has been a pro team mechanic on the road, track and mountain bike and worked for the Great Britain team at the World championships in all disciplines. Since moving to Spain and finding out how to use a computer, he has gone from contributor of Daily Distractions at the 2002 Vuelta a España to editor at PezCyclingNews.
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