No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Texas Tech — which team has the edge?
Scott Gleeson USA TODAY
Published 11:55 AM EDT Apr 1, 2019
The Duke vs. Gonzaga showdown that top analysts envisioned in this semifinal never materialized.
Instead, two veteran-laden teams in Michigan State and Texas Tech that played spoiler to those No. 1 seeds will square off for a clash that's sure to live up to the billing. These are the regular-season champions from the country's top two conferences, the Big Ten and the Big 12 — based on the NCAA's NET rating — after all.
Each of these teams have identities that largely rest on their best player's takeover abilities. For Michigan State, that go-to guy is Cassius Winston. For Texas Tech, it's Jarrett Culver. Both players were named their respective conference players of the year.
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET, CBS
Michigan State's path to the Final Four:
The Spartans (32-6) nearly ruined brackets everywhere in a first-round scare against No. 15 seed Bradley — bringing back memories of MSU's loss to No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee three years ago.
But Winston (26 points in that win) wouldn't let this team lose. Then MSU looked sloppy in dispatching Minnesota in the second round — turning the ball over 22 times.
The Sweet 16 saw this group hit its stride in hammering LSU by 17 points.
The team's best game of the season might've been Sunday's upset win over Duke that saw Kenny Goins drain a go-ahead 3-pointer with 39 seconds left.
Texas Tech's path to the Final Four:
The Red Raiders (30-6) have put together one of the most impressive defensive showings in recent tournament history.
It started with taking care of business in the first round by ousting Northern Kentucky.
Then came a strong defensive effort to limit an underrated Buffalo offense to 58 points.
Next up TTU held Michigan to 16 first-half points — an NCAA tourney record-low.
In the Elite Eight against Gonzaga and its nation-leading offense, Texas Tech forced timely turnovers and got the stops down the stretch to come out of a loaded West Regional victorious.
► How Michigan State has the edge:
The Spartans battled injuries all season and didn't look particularly strong early on in the tournament. But expect the second weekend's results to fuel a flame that has just started to burn for this group. That Duke game wasn't just an upset for an unexpected Final Four trip. It was a confidence builder for a veteran group that rides its point guard in scoring lulls and has a veteran mojo to make key plays down the stretch.
► How Texas Tech has the edge:
This defense is better than advertised, and it's hyped up pretty big. The Red Raiders lead the nation in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and field goal percentage defense (37 percent) — two stats that don't tell the full story of how coach Chris Beard has created a defensive juggernaut. Senior guard Matt Mooney's defensive efforts on Winston could be the difference-maker in frustrating MSU's floor general. But the key for TTU actually might come on offense, where Culver is a dynamic scorer and marksman Davide Moretti (46 percent 3-point shooter) is almost automatic from beyond the arc. Look for X-Factor seniors Brandone Francis and Tariq Owens to play pivotal roles on both ends against a similarly-veteran Michigan State team.
► Key player for the Spartans:
Winston is on pace to become the Final Four's most outstanding player if he continues to put the Spartans on his back like he has in four NCAA tournament wins. The 6-foot guard has the ball in his hands in a majority of MSU's possessions and that's simply because he makes things happen — either creating his own shot or facilitating for others. He's also excellent in transition and uses an uncanny court vision to energize his team in a way that another former Michigan State point guard, Magic Johnson, once did in the 1970s. Winston also has the leadership characteristics of one of Tom Izzo's other renowned point guards, Mateen Cleaves, who just so happened to lead Izzo to his first national championship.
► Key player for the Red Raiders: Culver.
The 6-5 guard is an NBA talent who has carried this team all season, averaging 18.9 points per game. His 29 points and seven assists in the first round against Northern Kentucky are a great example of his takeover abilities.
Same story in a 31-point performance vs. Iowa State on March 9. His natural ability on offense is evident, but letting the game come to him when the stakes are high should be Beard's priority for the sophomore who shoots a high volume of shots for this team. Culver's athleticism gives him the ability to shoot over defenders with ease, make plays at the rim and create something for this team in crunch time.
Which team reaches the title game?
Michigan State slayed the giant that was Duke, and even though the Spartans will be going against the most efficient defense in this whole tournament, they've willed themselves to wins and can build off the momentum to become give the Red Raiders a taste of their own medicine and use a field goal percentage defense that's ranked top-five in the country. If Izzo can find a way to neutralize Culver's production and frustrate TTU's other offensive options, he'll have another shot at a national championship.
Published 11:55 AM EDT Apr 1, 2019
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