Seeking the foundation

ILLUSTRATION BY ARTUR GALOCHA/ THE WASHINGTON POST; ASSOCIATED PRESS AND GETTY IMAGES PHOTOS - Clockwise from top left, Stephen Curry, Obi Toppin, Buddy Hield, Mo Bamba and Marcus Smart have been available with the sixth selection of the NBA draft.

How hard is it to find a star at No. 6? The recent track record is sobering.

25 Jun 2025 - The Washington Post

BY VARUN SHANKAR AND ARTUR GALOCHA

What should the Washington Wizards expect from their first pick — No. 6 overall — in this year’s NBA draft?

It is difficult to project, given the unpredictable development curves of 19-, 20- and 21-yearolds. But looking backward can offer a better idea of the range of outcomes for the player Washington selects.

The Washington Post examined the career outcomes for players selected from No. 6 through 10 (the tier of prospects the Wizards will choose from Wednesday night) from 2006 to 2020.

(The past four drafts were omitted to avoid analyzing players whose roles in the NBA remain unclear.)

The result: a group of 75 players who were then grouped based on their NBA tenures.

Just four of the 75 players — about 5 percent — were stars. Twelve players were high-level starters. Thirteen became regular starters. Twenty-three were mere contributors. And 23 players, about 30 percent, fizzled out into busts.

Stars

Let’s start with the stars, rare talents who can be the best players for contenders. Just four players make this group, led by two-time MVP and four-time NBA champion Stephen Curry. A not-so-fun fact for Wizards fans: Curry was drafted seventh in 2009, two picks after what would have been Washington’s pick. The Wizards traded it as part of a deal for Randy Foye and Mike Miller.

High-level starters

The next group is high-level starters, who are usually the second- or third-best players on their teams. Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is far behind teammate Nikola Jokic, but his contributions were integral to the team’s 2023 title.

Starters

Starters are usually somewhere between the fourth-and sixth-best players on their teams, pieces that impact winning but can’t drive a team to success. Look at Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who started every playoff game for two title teams, the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers and 2023 Nuggets. Caldwell-Pope has never averaged more than 15 points per game in a season but offers valuable ancillary abilities such as three-point shooting and perimeter defense.

Contributors

Contributors usually come off the bench for good teams but have long — often profitable — careers as role players. Al-farouq Aminu, drafted eighth in 2010, averaged under 10 points in 10 of his 11 seasons but played 711 regular season games and made more than $70 million during his career, according to Spotrac.

Busts

Busts do not carve out long-term NBA careers. This group features another painful reminder for Wizards fans. Washington last had the No. 6 pick in 2011. It took Jan Vesely, who played just three seasons in the NBA before going overseas.

This year’s Wizards are run by a different front office than the one that took Vesely. The new group, led by President Michael Winger and General Manager Will Dawkins, has explicitly stated that the Wizards primarily hope to build through the draft. There’s merit to the strategy but heavy risk, especially for a team that still needs a blue-chip star.